Saturday, April 14, 2012

This week's top fantasy baseball pickups

Lance Lynn RP/SP, Cardinals
MIXED LEAGUES (Yahoo: 28 percent owned, ESPN: 5.8 percent)Lynn didn't wait long to show why he makes for a sneaky sleeper in mixed leagues. The 24-year-old right-hander was excellent in his season debut Sunday against the Brewers, allowing one run over 6 2/3 innings while striking out eight and walking just one. He also averaged 93 mph on his fastball, so he didn't lose much velocity from where he was last season (93.2 mph), when he pitched primarily in relief. The common assumption is that Lynn will move back to the bullpen if or when Chris Carpenter is ready to return from nerve irritation in his shoulder, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ultimately makes the case for Jake Westbrook to lose his spot.

Waiver Wired column

Fernando Rodney RP, Rays
MIXED LEAGUES

(Yahoo: 49 percent owned, ESPN: 20.8 percent)

Like many others out there, last week I assumed that Joel Peralta would get the bulk of the save opportunities with Kyle Farnsworth sidelined. Leave it to Rays manager Joe Maddon to throw us all for a loop. Rodney has enjoyed an incredible first week of the season, going 3-for-3 in save opportunities and notching a win. He was especially impressive on Wednesday afternoon against the Tigers, retiring Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta in order. My guess is that he'll turn into a pumpkin before long, but it appears Maddon is riding the hot hand. So should fantasy owners.

Waiver Wired Column

Zack Cozart SS, Reds
MIXED LEAGUES

(Yahoo: 50 percent owned, ESPN: 35.6 percent)

He's probably already gone if you play in a competitive league, but Cozart has picked up right from where he left off before he undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow last August. The 26-year-old shortstop is hitting .455 (10-for-22) with one homer, two doubles, two triples and two RBI over his first six games this season and has hit safely in all of them. He was a .270 hitter over parts of five seasons in the minors, so obviously expect some correction, but the potential for double-digit homers and steals is very real. He could score a ton of runs hitting No. 2 in this lineup.

Waiver Wired Column

Erik Bedard SP, Pirates
MIXED LEAGUES

(Yahoo: 49 percent owned, ESPN: 17.5 percent)

It's pretty easy to joke about Bedard's lengthy injury history, but when he's on the mound, he's pretty darn effective. The veteran southpaw has allowed three runs in 12 innings (2.25 ERA) over his first two starts while striking out seven and walking two. The Pirates don't figure to put him in the win column all that often this season (see his current 0-2 record), but the move over to the National League should help him in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. He's worth owning in all formats, at least until his inevitable stint on the disabled list.

Waiver Wired Column

Adam LaRoche 1B, Nationals
MIXED LEAGUES

(Yahoo: 26 percent owned, ESPN: 22 percent)

The Nationals are missing Mike Morse in a big way right now, but LaRoche has bounced back quite nicely from shoulder surgery by batting .333 (8-for-24) with two homers, one double and six RBI over his first six games. The 32-year-old is a .268 career hitter, so I'm not expecting this to continue, but he did average 25 homers and 87 RBI per season from 2005-2010. First base isn't nearly as deep as it has been in the past, so there's value here in deeper mixed leagues, especially if you can stick him at a CI (corner infielder) spot.

Waiver Wired Column

Chipper Jones 3B, Braves
MIXED LEAGUES (Yahoo: 33 percent owned, ESPN: 46.4 percent)

This guy just won't go away. Jones was activated from the disabled list Tuesday, a little under three weeks after after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. The 39-year-old homered in his first game back and has four hits in his first nine at-bats. Sure, it's impossible to count on him to stay healthy, but it's easy to forget that he batted .275/.344/.470 with 18 homers, 70 RBI and an .814 OPS in 126 games last year. That's perfectly palatable production at third base in mixed leagues. As long as you also have a backup plan in mind, that is.
Jose Altuve 2B, Astros
MIXED LEAGUES (Yahoo: 21 percent owned, ESPN: 36.2 percent)

Was Altuve rushed to the big leagues last year? You bet. One look at his .294 on-base percentage is enough to tell you that. However, the 21-year-old still batted .276 and made contact 87.5 percent of the time. And he's only going to get better. For example, did you notice that he has already walked three times in 23 plate appearances this year after drawing only five walks in 234 plate appearances as a rookie? Progress, folks. Progress. I don't expect him to hit for a ton of power, but he has surprising pop for someone who checks in at 5-foot-5 and 170 pounds. Many will overlook him because he plays for a lousy team, but fantasy owners should use this situation to their advantage. His ability to hit for a high average and steal bases out of the No. 2 spot makes him a worthy target in the great majority of mixed formats.

Jon Niese SP, Mets
MIXED LEAGUES

(Yahoo: 30 percent owned, ESPN: 20 percent)

The Mets recently signed Niese to a five-year, $25.5 million contract extension with club options for 2017 and 2018. It won't be a terrible contract if he continues to pitch to his 4.40 career ERA, but the Mets are clearly hoping that he's ready to turn the corner. While the jury is still out on whether he's just been incredibly unlucky until this point or abnormally hittable, his 3.63 career xFIP and healthy peripherals (7.69 K/9, 3.03 BB/9 and 49.4 percent ground ball rate) provide plenty of reason for optimism. I'm not optimistic about his defense helping him out, but the potential for a breakout season is worth owning in 12-team mixed leagues.

James McDonald SP, Pirates
MIXED LEAGUES (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, ESPN: 0.5 percent)

Two Pirates' starting pitchers in the same week? Yeah, sorry about that. But McDonald's ownership levels simply shouldn't be this low. This often gets overlooked, but after getting knocked around to the tune of a 10.13 ERA over his first three starts last year, the 27-year-old right-hander posted a 3.49 ERA over his final 27 starts. Of course, ERA doesn't tell the whole story and his lofty walk rate (4.11 BB/9) led to a lot of early exits, but he averaged 7.47 K/9 on the year and began to make some progress with his control (64/29 K/BB ratio over 73 1/3 innings) after the All-Star break. He still has a lot to prove before making the leap to trusted fantasy hurler, but the gamble could pay off in deeper mixed formats.
Ruben Tejada SS/2B, Mets
MIXED LEAGUES (Yahoo: 8 percent owned, ESPN: 4 percent)I wasn't thrilled about Tejada's fantasy prospects going into the season because he was set to bat eighth, but Andres Torres' calf strain has thankfully pushed him into the leadoff spot. The 22-year-old is off to a solid start, hitting .333 (7-for-21) with four doubles and a 4/4 K/BB ratio, but the most impressive thing about him is his advanced plate discipline at such a young age. He posted a .360 on-base percentage last season to go along with a walk rate of 9.3 percent and a contact rate of 84.8 percent. Tejada doesn't have much power and isn't a burner like former shortstop Jose Reyes, but he should hit for a pretty decent average and score some runs hitting atop the Mets' lineup. That's good enough for him to be a consideration in 12-14 mixed leagues with a MI (middle infielder) spot. Johnny Damon OF, Free Agent
MIXED LEAGUES (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, ESPN: 0.5 percent)

The deal isn't done yet, but by all indications, Damon will be joining the Indians. The 38-year-old failed to find a home this offseason after batting .261/.326/.418 with 16 homers, 74 RBI, 19 stolen bases and a .743 OPS last season, but the Indians are hoping he can help their stalling offense. With Travis Hafner firmly entrenched in the DH spot, Damon will likely take starting left field duties from Shelley Duncan. While it could result in high comedy on defense, that shouldn't be a big concern for fantasy owners. Some wonder whether Damon changed his approach at the plate last season in his quest for 3,000 hits (he's currently 277 away), but he is still capable of reaching double digits in homers and steals. In deeper mixed leagues with five outfielders, why not pick him up?
Kirk Nieuwenhuis OF, Mets
NL-ONLY (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.2 percent)

Most expected Nieuwenhuis would make his major league debut a couple of months from now, but the Mets were forced to bring him up a little early after Andres Torres aggravated a calf strain on Opening Day. The 24-year-old should get the majority of the playing time in center field, though Scott Hairston will draw at-bats against left-handed pitching. Nieuwenhuis was limited to just 53 games with Triple-A Buffalo last year due to a shoulder injury which resulted in surgery, but he has shown an intriguing combination of power and speed in the minors. While he strikes out too much to hit for a high batting average, he should help in multiple categories right away.

Ross Detwiler SP/RP, Nationals
NL-ONLY

(Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

The Nationals surprised many at the end of spring training by sending John Lannan to the minors and awarding Detwiler with the final spot in the starting rotation, but the 26-year-old southpaw validated the decision by striking out six over five shutout innings in his season debut Monday against the Mets. Truth be told, the 2007 first-round pick actually made a pretty good case for a rotation spot after posting a 3.21 ERA over 10 starts last year. He's not much of a secret anymore, though. Detwiler isn't going to pile up a ton of strikeouts, so keep expectations in check, but he has the command and arsenal to survive as back-end starter.

Justin Maxwell OF, Astros

NL-ONLY

(Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)Maxwell was designated for assignment by the Yankees last week, but it's really the best thing that could have happened to him, as he had no shot at finding any playing time with the big club. The rebuilding Astros snatched him up off waivers and he promptly delivered a pinch-hit two-run homer in his first at-bat with the club on Monday night. The 28-year-old has struggled to make contact in the big leagues, but his combination of power and speed remains enticing. He could find his way into the lineup against southpaws, so there's appeal here in daily leagues. Joe Wieland SP, Padres

NL-ONLY

(Yahoo: N/A, ESPN: 0 percent)

The Padres are a little short-handed in their rotation with Dustin Moseley and Tim Stauffer on the disabled list, so Wieland is expected to make his major league debut Saturday against the Dodgers. Wieland, who was acquired from the Rangers in the Mike Adams deal, had a ridiculous 1.97 ERA and 150/21 K/BB ratio over 155 2/3 innings in the minors last year. The 22-year-old right-hander sits in the low 90s with his fastball and his curveball and changeup are both average or better pitches, but his outstanding control is what makes him intriguing. Worse pitchers have enjoyed breakouts in PETCO Park, so I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes relevant as a spot-starter in mixed leagues as soon as this season.

Andy Dirks OF, Tigers
AL-ONLY

(Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.4 percent)Dirks won a spot on the Opening Day roster and while he isn't an everyday player, he should be in the lineup pretty regularly as the designated hitter or left fielder against right-handed pitching. The 25-year-old was useful in part-time duty for the Tigers last year, batting .251 with seven homers, 28 RBI, five stolen bases and a .703 OPS over 78 games. It's not a major leap to say that he could reach double-digits in homers and steals this season, which actually makes him worth watching in deeper mixed formats, as well.

Vicente Padilla RP/SP, Red Sox
AL-ONLY

(Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.2 percent)

Padilla came to Red Sox camp in hopes of winning a rotation spot, but he currently finds himself in a swingman/middle relief role. The 34-year-old right-hander was impressive in relief of Clay Buchholz on Sunday against the Tigers, striking out out four over four scoreless innings. Who knows how long Padilla can stay healthy, but with many questions remaining about the back-end of the bullpen and the rotation, he's an interesting name to keep stashed away.

Liam Hendriks SP, Twins
AL-ONLY

(Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)We learned Wednesday that Scott Baker needs surgery to repair the flexor pronator tendon in his elbow and will miss the rest of the season. While it's a tough blow for the Twins, this officially opens the door for Hendriks, who had a 3.36 ERA and 111/21 K/BB ratio over 139 1/3 innings last year between Double-A New Britain and Triple-A Rochester. The 23-year-old Aussie doesn't have electric stuff, but throws plenty of strikes and has a varied arsenal at his disposal. Keep in mind that he recently dealt with food poisoning and is now scheduled to make his season debut Sunday against the Rangers, so it might make sense to leave him inactive initially.

Jonny Gomes OF, Athletics
AL-ONLY

(Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

Is Gomes a sexy name? Nope. We're talking about someone who batted .211/.336/.399 last year between the Reds and Nationals and owns a .242/.329/.452 career batting line. But as we saw with his homer off Bruce Chen on Wednesday, the one thing that he can do is mash left-handed pitching. The 31-year-old has an .872 career OPS against them. His playing time will likely be limited, but he's useful in leagues where you can make daily lineup changes.

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